A Song of Ice and Fire: Is the Global Copper Tube Industry Heading Towards an Ultimate Split Between 'High-End Shortage' and 'Low-End Overcapacity'?​

Subtitle:​ While orders for ultra-thin-walled copper tubes at German giant Wieland are scheduled until the end of 2026, factories in Zhejiang are forced to cut prices by 30% due to idle capacity. What does this stark structural divergence in the global copper tube market signify?

Market Schism: The Striking Contrast Between High-End Shortage and Low-End Glut​

The global copper tube industry is experiencing an unprecedented structural divergence in 2025. In the high-end market, ultra-thin-walled copper tubes (wall thickness ≤ 0.25mm)​ have lead times extended to 18 months, with orders at leading companies like Germany's Wieland and Japan's KOBE scheduled until the end of 2026 . In stark contrast, capacity utilization for traditional copper tubes continues to decline, with some small and medium-sized enterprises in China operating at less than 60% and forced to compete for orders with price cuts of 15%-30%.

This divergence is clearly reflected in the data: global demand for precision copper tubes grew by 12% in 2025, while demand for ordinary copper tubes fell by 5%. The gross margin for high-end products remains at 25%-30%, whereas profits for low-end products have been compressed to just 3%-5% . European clients are willing to pay a premium of about 20% to secure quotas for copper tubes used in aerospace, while ordinary copper tubes for construction in Southeast Asia are stuck in price wars.

Table 1: Key Indicators of Structural Divergence in the Global Copper Tube Market (2025)

Technology Gap: The Multi-Billion Dollar Market Behind a 0.01mm Wall Thickness Difference​

The core of this split lies in the technological generation gap. Global leading manufacturers have achieved wall thickness precision control of ±0.003mm, while ordinary factories remain at the ±0.1mm level . This difference of 0.097mm determines whether a product can enter high-end applications such as new energy vehicle battery cooling systems and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Japanese companies, using ultra-low-speed stretching technology​ (speed controlled at 0.1m/minute), produce capillary copper tubes with a wall thickness of 0.05mm, commanding prices as high as $300/kg—50 times that of ordinary copper tubes . Conversely, SMEs lacking R&D capability are confined to competing fiercely in the low-end market.

Technologically leading companies are building moats with patents. The top 10 copper tube companies globally hold 68% of relevant patents, creating monopolies in innovative products like nano-coated antibacterial copper tubes​ and self-healing copper tubes.

Regional Patterns: The Interplay of European Quality and Asian Cost

The global copper tube market shows clear regional specialization :

• Europe: Dominates the high-end market, focusing on specialty tubes for aerospace, medical equipment, etc., with prices ranging from $80-200/kg.
• North America: Focuses on new energy vehicle and data center cooling systems; Tesla's Cybertruck battery thermal management copper tubes require pressure resistance above 5MPa.
• Asia: China accounts for 60% of global capacity, but 80% is concentrated in the mid-to-low end; Thailand and Vietnam are seeing capacity growth exceeding 20%.

This regional pattern is being disrupted. After acquiring Germany's KME specialty copper tube business, China's Hailiang obtained European technical standard certifications and successfully entered Airbus's supply chain . Meanwhile, Wieland's new plant in Poland utilizes local cost advantages to produce medium-high-end copper tubes at costs 18% lower than in Germany.

Supply Chain Restructuring: Green Barriers Accelerating Industry Shake-up​

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), covering copper tubes from 2025, imposes additional carbon costs on tubes produced with traditional processes. Copper tubes with a recycled copper content exceeding 80%​ receive tariff exemptions, while capacity reliant on fossil fuels is gradually phased out.

Leading global companies are already building green supply chains:

• Wieland's Polish plant uses photovoltaic power, reducing the product carbon footprint by 40%.
• China's Hailiang Co., Ltd. has established a recycled copper traceability system, with recycled material accounting for 65% in its high-end products.
• Mueller Industries in the US invested $400 million in a zero-carbon copper tube production line.

These measures give environmentally leading companies favor with ESG-conscious clients like BMW and Siemens, while SMEs still using traditional energy sources are increasingly excluded from high-end supply chains.

Future Trends: Digital Twins and AI Prediction Reshaping the Industry​

Facing the divergent landscape, leading companies are enhancing competitiveness through digital transformation :

• Digital Twin Technology: Simulating the copper tube production process in virtual space reduces the new product development cycle from 18 months to 6 months.
• AI Quality Prediction: Using machine learning to predict product qualification rates 24 hours in advance, reducing the defect rate from 3% to 0.5%.
• Blockchain Traceability: Recording the full lifecycle carbon footprint to meet EU environmental requirements.

These technological investments are substantial, affordable by only about 15% of global enterprises, which will further widen the industry gap. It is estimated that by 2028, the top 5 enterprises will control 70% of the high-end market share, while thousands of SMEs may be forced to exit or transform into specialized OEMs.

The Path to Survival in a Split Market​

The divergence of the global copper tube industry is irreversible. Companies face three choices :

1. Breakthrough Upwards: Invest in R&D to overcome technical barriers, like Some of Chinese copper factory focusing on ultra-fine copper tubes for the 3C sector.
2. Specialize in Niches: Build advantages in specific fields, such as small firms specializing in medical gas tubes.
3. Cost Leadership: Survive through extreme cost control, like Southeast Asian enterprises leveraging labor advantages.

This split is essentially a collision between the old manufacturing model and new industrial demands. Companies that can adapt quickly and position themselves accurately will find their place in the new landscape, while those persisting with a generalized "large and complete" model may face the greatest risks.